Ukraine Briefly

August 04, 2023

Ukraine, Briefly

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This week, the Polish government complained that more than 100 Russian-linked Wagner Group mercenaries have moved close to its border in Belarus, the Associated Press reported. The movement of Wagner members follows the group’s arrival in Belarus after their short-lived rebellion in Russia earlier this summer. Tensions between Poland and Belarus have existed for two years due to an influx of migrants from the Middle East and Africa toward Poland’s eastern border, which the Polish government views as a form of hybrid warfare orchestrated by Russia and Belarus to continue to destabilize the region.

At the same time, Poland’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion is being tested by a diplomatic dispute over grain imports, Euronews wrote. This has already resulted in the summoning of the Polish ambassador to Kyiv. Analysts say Russia may exploit this dispute to its own advantage. Meanwhile, Poland and other European Union countries have imposed import bans on Ukrainian grain because it impacts their own grain production industry. While the European Commission adopted a temporary measure allowing the transit of goods to the rest of the EU and third countries, Poland has said it will continue to ban Ukrainian grain beyond September when the EU’s measure expires.

Also this week:

• China said it will restrict the export of long-range civilian drones due to concerns about their potential military use in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Hill reported. The move comes amid reports of Chinese-made drones being used for reconnaissance and carrying out attacks, especially by Ukraine, which has regularly used drones to take out Russian supply trucks and tanks. This week, the country escalated its drone attacks on Russian territory, Vox reported, this time on a skyscraper in Moscow. While the attacks are unlikely to significantly change Moscow’s strategy, it signals that Ukraine is able to strike into Russian territory, potentially forcing Russia to defend different assets and stretch its military capabilities.

• Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces recaptured the town of Staromaiorske after engaging the Russian troops in the Donetsk province, according to El País. The fight was part of Ukraine’s offensive to regain control of occupied territories. Despite progress, the road to Mariupol remains challenging, with open plains exposing soldiers to continuous attacks. The conflict has left towns devastated, with few inhabitants remaining, enduring harsh conditions without basic amenities.

• Saudi Arabia is set to host peace talks this month, bringing together Western countries, Ukraine, and key developing nations, in an effort to consolidate international support for Ukraine’s peace demands, the Wall Street Journal wrote. The talks seek to establish shared principles for resolving the war, with the hope of a peace summit later this year. Russia won’t be part of the summit as it has resisted serious peace discussions, but Saudi Arabia aims to encourage China’s participation. However, there are differences between Ukraine and developing countries on issues like sanctions on Moscow.

This story originally appeared in the August 04, 2023 newsletter, An Antiquated Model.