Ukraine Briefly

June 16, 2023

Ukraine, Briefly

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This week, Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia entered a crucial phase, with both sides engaged in a battle of attrition, according to Reuters. Russian forces have fortified their positions with obstacles and defenses, while Ukraine aimed to exploit gaps in Russia’s defense for tactical advantage. Moscow’s strategy is to inflict significant casualties on Ukrainian troops before they reach the main defensive line. Ukraine has been preparing for months and has formed armored brigades – but only three have been in combat so far, and the lack of air power remains a challenge.

Still, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed this week that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has suffered major losses and is approaching “catastrophic” levels, a claim denied by Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the BBC reported. While both sides make daily claims about casualties, the situation is complex, with modest gains and setbacks in different regions.

Also this week:

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that his country had received nuclear weapons from Russia and would not hesitate to use them if provoked, the Hill wrote. Lukashenko stated that while he would consult with his Russian counterpart before using the weapons, there would be no hesitation if faced with aggression.

• Meanwhile, the leaders of France, Germany, and Poland met in Paris to discuss military support for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and future security guarantees, the Associated Press added. They pledged ongoing support and promised deliveries of weapons and aid, although details of long-term security guarantees were not provided. The issue will be addressed at an upcoming NATO summit.

• Soldiers from the mercenary outfit Wagner Group have refused to sign contracts with Russia’s defense ministry, defying orders from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Al Jazeera reported. The directive aimed to increase the effectiveness of the Russian army in Ukraine. Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stated that Wagner would not comply with the order and criticized top military officials. Non-compliance could lead to Wagner being deprived of supplies. Although the ministry did not explicitly mention Wagner in its statement, the new rule seeks to rein in the controversial leader and his group following a series of public outbursts criticizing Russia’s military.

• The ministry’s directive comes as Russian citizens have begun searching for information online about Prigozhin more frequently than for President Putin, Newsweek noted. The increased interest in Prigozhin reflects his growing popularity and the strained relationship between him and the government. Some analysts speculate that Prigozhin’s actions could lead to repercussions, such as staged suicides or targeted attacks by Russian authorities.

• The European Union has extended a ban on Ukrainian grain imports to Poland and four other countries due to concerns about low-cost products damaging local farmers’ businesses, Euronews noted. Polish farmers have protested against unsold grain and low prices caused by competition from Ukraine. Analysts emphasized the need to protect Polish agriculture, which meets EU standards and contributes to food security.

• Elsewhere, Pakistan made its first government-to-government import of discounted Russian crude oil this week, breaking away from its US dollar-dominated export payments policy, according to Reuters. The payment for the crude oil was made in Chinese currency. The move is aimed at alleviating Pakistan’s economic crisis and balance of payments problem. It also provides Russia with a new market for oil sales, while Pakistan gains an alternative source of oil. The South Asian country intends to buy one-third of its total oil imports from Russia.

This story originally appeared in the June 16, 2023 newsletter, Pride and Pressure.