The World Briefly

July 18, 2023

The Reneger

RussiaUkraine

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Russia suspended its participation in a landmark United Nations-brokered deal that provided a humanitarian corridor to deliver Ukrainian grain to global markets, a move that will likely raise wheat prices and threaten food security in vulnerable nations around the world, CNBC reported Monday.

Signed a year ago, the Black Sea Grain Initiative sought to reduce the impact of the global food crisis arising from reduced grain supplies and soaring prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – a fellow grain exporter – in early 2022.

Under the agreement, cargo ships carrying grain and fertilizer supplies could travel from three Ukrainian ports to Istanbul, one of Turkey’s busiest ports.

But the deal has been repeatedly extended in short-term increments amid increasing discontent from Russia over perceived restrictions that limit the full dispatch of its own grain and fertilizer exports.

Russian President Vladimir Putin complained to his South African counterpart, Cyril Ramaphosa, that the key goal of supplying grain to countries in need – including African nations – had not been achieved under the deal.

On Monday, Russian officials said the deal is off, adding that it could only be resumed “if concrete results are received, not promises and assurances.”

The deal is set to expire on July 18.

The European Union criticized the move, while analysts said prices of grain exports from Ukraine will increase. They explained that Kyiv will be forced to deliver grain through its land borders and Danube River ports, which will “significantly drive up transportation costs and pile further pressure on Ukrainian farmers’ profits.”

Still, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – who has been deeply involved in the negotiations – expressed confidence that the Kremlin will continue with the initiative.

Erdogan plans to hold phone talks with Putin ahead of their in-person meeting next month. Even so, observers questioned whether the Turkish leader’s efforts will succeed after Ankara endorsed Sweden’s accession to NATO earlier this month – a move that dealt an indirect blow to Russia.

This story originally appeared in the July 18, 2023 newsletter, Past and Present.