Need to Know

July 24, 2023

The Peace Dividend

Ukraine

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Former American President Donald Trump recently said that, if he resided in the White House again, he could negotiate a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine in a day, the Kyiv Independent noted.

Hyperbole or not, Trump is just the latest of numerous global figures who have made gestures to end the war now raging between Ukraine and Russia.

For example, China released a plan entitled “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis.” But, as Foreign Policy magazine wrote, the plan was less about ending the war and more about China’s more aggressive stance on the global stage. The plan was designed to expand Chinese influence in developing countries that haven’t been as quick as the West to condemn Russia, reset its relationship with Europe, and make sure China gains from eventual reconstruction efforts in Ukraine.

French and Indian leaders recently met in Paris to discuss security questions, including the war, reported the New Voice of Ukraine, citing the French newspaper Le Monde. Both want to end the war through diplomacy, but India appeared more reluctant than France to play the role of a peace broker between the two.

Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, meanwhile, issued a plan that included a ceasefire, a demilitarized zone between the countries, and United Nations peacekeeping troops. His ideas were likely announced to raise his profile for the upcoming 2024 presidential election, the Asia Times contended.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would have rejected Prabowo’s proposals even if they were serious. As the Jerusalem Post explained, any plan that doesn’t identify Russia as an aggressor and mandate the return of Ukrainian territory will simply create a so-called “frozen conflict”, resembling the worst times in Northern Ireland in the last century, or the constant threat of violence that hangs over the West Bank and Gaza Strip in Israel’s occupied territories.

Meanwhile, Africa also joined the chorus. Recently, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa as well as leaders from Comoros, Egypt, Senegal, Uganda, and Zambia ventured to Moscow to try their hand at peacemaking, Al Jazeera wrote. They announced a plan that centered on de-escalating the military situation, boosting grain exports from both countries that are crucial to Africans’ survival, and returning children displaced by the war to their home countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed their ideas, the Washington Post added.

In a sense, none of these ideas have been sufficiently bold or serious to bring the war to an end, argued University of Birmingham international security professor Stefan Wolff in the Conversation.

He added, however, that if a coalition of big countries like China, India, and Brazil comes up with a sensible plan, things might change.

Until then, it’s all hot air.

This story originally appeared in the July 24, 2023 newsletter, The Peace Dividend.