The World Today for April 14, 2023

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NEED TO KNOW

On the Precipice

SURINAME

Suriname’s gross domestic product (GDP) plunged by 16 percent during the coronavirus pandemic – the second worst dip in South America after the economic basket case of Venezuela. The country defaulted on its debt three times, leading the International Monetary Fund in 2021 to give the former Dutch colony a loan nearing $700 million.

That’s when the problems started.

In February, protesters stormed Suriname’s parliament in the capital of Paramaribo to decry President Chan Santokhi’s austerity measures, set up to reorganize the country’s economy and repay the loan, including cuts to subsidies that help keep energy and water costs down. After “initially being taken aback by the fury and size of the crowd,” wrote the Associated Press, police arrested at least 126 people.

Santokhi called for restraint. “We believe that the economic situation, the main reason for the protest, should be normalized as quickly as possible,” he said, according to Telesur, the Venezuelan state-owned news service.

The president is not necessarily the root of the problem. His predecessor, Dési Bouterse, oversaw an incompetent, free-spending, mismanaging, and corrupt administration that didn’t prepare Suriname for tough times, argued Global Americans, a think tank.

But Santokhi is the head of state, so he takes the blame. And late last month, the protesters took to the capital again. This time, they called for Santokhi to resign because they say he has been dragging his feet on new election laws for the 2025 presidential election.

These incidents are important because they highlight how many developing countries are struggling to regain their economic, political, and social footing in a post-pandemic world where inflation, financial crises, and anger are mixing into a combustible mix – while a looming global recession has not even technically taken hold yet.

Suriname’s creditors, for example, are not necessarily prepared to endure haircuts on their investments to be nice to the country of 600,000 people, wrote Financial Policy magazine, saying that the “world lacks an effective framework for dealing with post-pandemic debt crises.”

Santokhi and many citizens of Suriname likely hoped oil would help. The discovery of black gold in the region has triggered an economic boom in neighboring Guyana, where GDP increased by a whopping 58 percent last year as oil prices spiked. But now oil companies have delayed their investments in the region for a variety of factors, including the civil unrest in the unstable nation, Oilprice.com reported.

Could Suriname become a failed state? Only if the government, protesters, and international financiers only pursue their narrow interests.

THE WORLD, BRIEFLY

Armed Regrets

SUDAN

The Sudanese military warned Thursday of potential conflict in the African nation after the country’s powerful paramilitary force began mobilizing its troops in the capital and other cities over the past few days, the Middle East Eye reported.

The army issued a statement condemning the movements of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), saying they represent a “clear violation of law” and have come without “the approval of, or coordination with” the armed forces’ leadership.

It added that the RSF’s mobilization efforts “will inevitably cause more divisions and tensions that may lead to the collapse of security in the country.”

Earlier this week, reports emerged that the RSF had deployed troops in the capital Khartoum and the northern city of Merowe.

The announcement and troop movements are part of an ongoing crisis in Sudan, which has been trying to transition to a civilian-led government following a military coup last year.

The recent events also underscore a continuing power struggle between Sudan’s de facto head of state, General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan, and his deputy, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, chief of the RSF.

Tensions between the two leaders have escalated in recent months, resulting in the signing of an internationally backed agreement – originally scheduled for April 1 – to name a Sudanese civilian government and launch a new transition toward elections, being twice delayed.

The disagreements stem from the RSF’s integration into the military, which was mandated in the framework agreement for the transition inked in December.

The deal is thought to benefit Dagalo, which is why the paramilitary leader has publicly supported it.

A draft of the final agreement calls for the integration of Sudan’s military and RSF – as well as former rebel movements – within 10 years. Meanwhile, the Sudanese Armed Forces expect the integration process to take two years.

The dispute heated up last month when Burhan demanded that the RSF be integrated into the military. Dagalo reacted defiantly, stating he regretted the October 2021 coup he helped orchestrate with Burhan.

Featured Partner

A Growing Disease

BRAZIL

Brazil will implement new restrictions on social media in an effort to curb an “epidemic” of violent school attacks that have plagued the country since last week, Agence France-Presse reported.

On Wednesday, Justice Minister Flavio Dino said that platforms will be ordered to take steps to ban content and users who “are promoting or supporting attacks or violence against schools.”

Social media firms will also need to deliver data to police on all users sharing violent content and restrict offending users from creating new profiles.

Those that do not comply with the new rules could face fines of up to $2.4 million and possibly have their sites suspended.

The new restrictions come a week after a hatchet-wielding assailant killed four children between the ages of four and seven in a preschool in the southern Santa Catarina state. Two other attacks on schools – neither with fatalities – occurred on Monday and Tuesday.

Although school attacks were relatively rare in Brazil, the South American country has experienced an increase in the past year that has sparked national debate, according to NPR.

There have been nine attacks in the eight months since August. There were 13 in the previous 20 years.

Meanwhile, Brazilian authorities are increasing security and patrols in the coming days following a number of social media posts about a potential wave of violence on April 20.

The date marks the anniversary of a 1999 shooting in Colorado, US, where teenage shooters Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold killed 13 people at Columbine High School, before killing themselves.

Dancing the Carmagnole

FRANCE

French union advocates on Thursday continued their weeks-long demonstrations against the government’s plan to overhaul France’s pension system, a day before the country’s Constitutional Council decides on the legality of the contentious reform, Reuters reported.

Striking workers disrupted garbage collection in Paris and blocked river traffic on one part of the Rhine River in eastern France.

The latest unrest comes as the court will decide whether President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform proposal should be accepted, modified, or rejected based on the guidelines set by the French constitution, France 24 noted.

The bill aims to raise the state retirement age by two years to 64, a move the government says is necessary to ensure that France’s generous pension system does not go bust.

Unionizing workers, however, countered that government should tax the rich more to finance the system.

If the Council gives its permission – possibly with some caveats – the government will be able to implement the law, hoping that time will end the protests, which have at times become violent and galvanized mass opposition to Macron.

Even so, demonstrators said they would continue their fight if the Council greenlights the law, adding that they want a referendum on the issue or the bill to be reconsidered by parliament.

Macron plans to hold a meeting with unions following the Council’s vote to work on other suggestions – an initiative that union leaders believe will be short-lived if the president is unwilling to discuss abandoning the reform.

Political analysts believe that widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s pension plan may have long-term consequences, including a possible boost for the far right, which has expressed mixed support for the pension plan.

UKRAINE, BRIEFLY

This week, leaked Pentagon documents posted on social media highlighted a pessimistic US viewpoint on the state of the war in Ukraine. The documents, which appear to date from February and March, underscored weaknesses in Ukraine’s weaponry and air defenses, and predicted a stalemate in the war for months to come, CNN reported. They also warned that Ukraine’s medium-range air defenses could be “completely reduced by May 23,” suggesting Russia could gain aerial superiority. The documents indicate that Russia’s campaign of attrition in the Donbas region is likely heading toward a stalemate, thwarting its goal of capturing the entire region in 2023. US and Ukrainian officials have downplayed the significance of the leaked documents but some adjustments to Ukraine’s military plans have already been made in response to the leak. The leaked documents included detailed maps of battlefield positions, statistics on casualties and weaponry, and assessments of Ukrainian forces in various areas.

Meanwhile, the documents also show a number of countries that agreed or were planning to send weapons to Ukraine and Russia: One leak revealed sensitive information between high-level South Korean officials on whether to arm Ukraine, while another showed Serbia – a country that has not sanctioned Russia and is a close ally – agreed to provide Kyiv with weapons. Serbia denied the claim. Meanwhile, Egypt denied supplying weapons to Russia, after the intelligence documents alleged that President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi ordered the production of 40,000 rockets but told officials to keep it a secret “to avoid problems with the West.” As authorities are probing the leak, which was attributed to a member of the Massachusetts National Guard, officials and analysts noted that some of the documents were not authentic and had been doctored to cause a rift among allies and disrupt Ukraine’s war effort, according to Newsweek.

Also this week:

  • Russia passed a bill allowing military officials to issue online draft notices and increase the punishment for suspected draft dodgers, making it harder for individuals to evade being drafted to go fight in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal wrote. The new law will give recruitment officers the right to send summonses to Russian men over the government’s main online portal, which is commonly used for basic state services. This move comes after many men of fighting age avoided answering the door for fear of being physically handed a summons during the nationwide mobilization drive in September. That led to apartment complexes in Moscow setting up WhatsApp and Telegram groups to alert residents of officials arriving to present draft notices. While the Kremlin has denied plans for a fresh mobilization beyond the regular annual draft, the introduction of a digital summons system could disrupt methods of evading the call-up.
  • The UK government sanctioned “financial fixers” who allegedly assisted Russian oligarchs Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov in concealing their assets, the Guardian noted. The Foreign Office announced the penalties on Wednesday, accusing “oligarch enablers” of intentionally enabling billionaire businessmen to protect their wealth.
  • The Save Ukraine organization brought back 31 children from Russia who were taken during the war, the Associated Press added. The deportations of Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia have been a concern since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and children’s rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for abducting children from Ukraine. The International Committee of the Red Cross has been in contact with Lvova-Belova, confirming high-level international intervention in reuniting families with forcibly deported children.

DISCOVERIES

Let’s Do the Waggle

Honeybees need to perform a specific dance to let their hive know the location of nearby nectar and pollen.

Known as the “waggle dance,” the speedy choreography of twists and turns tells others a lot about the targeted flower, including its distance and deliciousness.

But this intricate dance routine is not genetically hard-wired into the insects – in fact it is a learned skill, the Washington Post reported.

Bees and other insects are capable of imitating one another, a trait known as “social learning” usually observed with bigger-brained creatures, such as monkeys.

In a new study, a research team determined that younger pollinators need to watch and learn from their elders to properly boogie.

The researchers recorded and analyzed the footage of European honey bees in 10 colonies in a lab: In half the hives, younger bees would carefully observe older ones doing the waggle at breakneck speeds.

The other half, however, was deprived of experienced dance partners.

The findings showed that 10-day-old bees that had no partners performed a more inconsistent waggle dance than their partnered-up counterparts. While they eventually did become better at delivering coordinates, the fuzzy arthropods could never quite get right the dance moves for communicating distance.

Researcher Lars Chittka, who was not involved in the paper, noted that the study “opens up a wholly new perspective” about the complexity and sophistication of the waggle dance.

Still, the authors cautioned that pesticides are threatening the dance party because they impact the bees’ ability to learn.

 

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