Ukraine Briefly

April 14, 2023

Ukraine, Briefly

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This week, leaked Pentagon documents posted on social media highlighted a pessimistic US viewpoint on the state of the war in Ukraine. The documents, which appear to date from February and March, underscored weaknesses in Ukraine’s weaponry and air defenses, and predicted a stalemate in the war for months to come, CNN reported. They also warned that Ukraine’s medium-range air defenses could be “completely reduced by May 23,” suggesting Russia could gain aerial superiority. The documents indicate that Russia’s campaign of attrition in the Donbas region is likely heading toward a stalemate, thwarting its goal of capturing the entire region in 2023. US and Ukrainian officials have downplayed the significance of the leaked documents but some adjustments to Ukraine’s military plans have already been made in response to the leak. The leaked documents included detailed maps of battlefield positions, statistics on casualties and weaponry, and assessments of Ukrainian forces in various areas.

Meanwhile, the documents also show a number of countries that agreed or were planning to send weapons to Ukraine and Russia: One leak revealed sensitive information between high-level South Korean officials on whether to arm Ukraine, while another showed Serbia – a country that has not sanctioned Russia and is a close ally – agreed to provide Kyiv with weapons. Serbia denied the claim. Meanwhile, Egypt denied supplying weapons to Russia, after the intelligence documents alleged that President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi ordered the production of 40,000 rockets but told officials to keep it a secret “to avoid problems with the West.” As authorities are probing the leak, which was attributed to a member of the Massachusetts National Guard, officials and analysts noted that some of the documents were not authentic and had been doctored to cause a rift among allies and disrupt Ukraine’s war effort, according to Newsweek.

Also this week:

• Russia passed a bill allowing military officials to issue online draft notices and increase the punishment for suspected draft dodgers, making it harder for individuals to evade being drafted to go fight in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal wrote. The new law will give recruitment officers the right to send summonses to Russian men over the government’s main online portal, which is commonly used for basic state services. This move comes after many men of fighting age avoided answering the door for fear of being physically handed a summons during the nationwide mobilization drive in September. That led to apartment complexes in Moscow setting up WhatsApp and Telegram groups to alert residents of officials arriving to present draft notices. While the Kremlin has denied plans for a fresh mobilization beyond the regular annual draft, the introduction of a digital summons system could disrupt methods of evading the call-up.

• The UK government sanctioned “financial fixers” who allegedly assisted Russian oligarchs Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov in concealing their assets, the Guardian noted. The Foreign Office announced the penalties on Wednesday, accusing “oligarch enablers” of intentionally enabling billionaire businessmen to protect their wealth.

• The Save Ukraine organization brought back 31 children from Russia who were taken during the war, the Associated Press added. The deportations of Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia have been a concern since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and children’s rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for abducting children from Ukraine. The International Committee of the Red Cross has been in contact with Lvova-Belova, confirming high-level international intervention in reuniting families with forcibly deported children.

This story originally appeared in the April 14, 2023 newsletter, On the Precipice.