The World Today for August 08, 2024

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Playing Chicken

MIDDLE EAST

Iranian leaders recently warned commercial airlines and others to avoid Iranian airspace as the country appeared poised to launch a war against Israel. The warning came as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Group of Seven foreign ministers that Iran could attack Israel within days.

That’s because the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are vowing vengeance for the killings of top personnel in Hamas and Hezbollah allegedly by Israel. “The warmongering and terrorist Zionist regime will receive harsh punishment in the suitable time, place, and capacity,” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said.

An escalation might be what Israel intended, according to Elon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat and foreign policy advisor, writing in Haaretz. The killing of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran was either about “instant gratification,” or “about flirting with major escalation,” he wrote, adding it might have been done to drag the US into the war.

On July 30, Israel assassinated senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon, and two days later, Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran during the new Iranian president’s inauguration – Israel has not taken responsibility for the latter killing. And on Aug. 1, Israel’s military confirmed it had killed a top Hamas commander in Gaza, Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri (better known as Mohammed Deif), in an operation in July.  These killings significantly upped the ante in the conflict between Israel and the two Iranian-backed militant organizations, explained the Jerusalem Post, adding that Israel was becoming more proactive in undercutting its enemies, including in unfriendly territory.

But these Israeli attacks also significantly increased tensions throughout the Middle East, causing many analysts to fear an outbreak of a major conflict, Voice of America wrote. The US, for example, has been sending more naval ships to the region since the killings, while US officials have been conducting furious rounds of diplomacy, warning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a peace deal and Tehran to refrain from escalating the situation.

Interestingly, the assassination took place after Netanyahu’s fiery address to American lawmakers in Washington. In the address, Netanyahu defended his country’s prosecution of the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after Hamas’ staged its deadly terror attacks on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people and kidnapping more than 250 others. Israel has devastated the Gaza Strip in response, killing more than 40,000 people, Reuters wrote.

“Israel will fight until we destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and its rule in Gaza and bring all our hostages home,” Netanyahu told Congress, according to the Associated Press. “That’s what total victory means. And we will settle for nothing less.”

The speech in retrospect was tantamount to announcing a ramp-up in operations, wrote Sami Al-Arian, director of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs at Istanbul Zaim University, in an opinion piece in Middle East Eye that squarely blamed Israel for perpetuating the war in a “genocidal campaign” against the Palestinians.

Iranian leaders, meanwhile, say they wanted to avoid “all-out war,” Bloomberg reported. And Lebanon, reeling from economic and political crises, is not stable enough to engage in one, analysts say.

Already, there has been a surge of refugees trying to leave Lebanon to avoid more violence. Numerous countries have also recommended that their citizens leave the country on the Mediterranean, the BBC added.

The Middle East has seen the worst of these situations too many times before, said Blinken.

“Right now, the path that the region is on is for more conflicts, more violence, more suffering, more insecurity, and it is crucial that we break the cycle. And that starts with a ceasefire,” Blinken said. “To get there, it also first requires all parties to stop taking any escalatory actions. It also requires them to find reasons to come to an agreement, not to look for reasons to delay or say no to the agreement.”

Meanwhile, the killing of Haniyeh, the top negotiator for Hamas, may prevent the talks aimed at stopping the fighting in Gaza from going any further.

Qatar, which has hosted Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders at Washington’s request for years, and has been at the center of talks, was visibly frustrated. “Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, said on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Peace needs serious partners.”

But it added that while a further delay in the talks would be a blow to civilians in Gaza and the families of Israeli hostages still being held there, it could be welcomed by Netanyahu, who has been trying to derail the negotiations, the Washington Post wrote.

“Together, the recent operations underscored Israel’s willingness and ability to target adversaries beyond its borders, including deep in hostile territory – and suggested that Netanyahu’s government, like the leaders of Iran and its militant allies, is unlikely to heed calls from the United States and other outside powers to put the ongoing cycle of violence to rest.”

THE WORLD, BRIEFLY

Repeat Offender

THAILAND

Thailand’s constitutional court dissolved the pro-democracy Move Forward Party (MFP), ruling it attempted to undermine the country’s royal defamation law during last year’s election campaign, a verdict observers said underscored a pattern suppressing democratic movements in the Southeast Asian nation, the South China Morning Post reported.

On Wednesday, the top court ruled that the MFP was guilty of attempting to overthrow the monarchy with its campaign to reform Thailand’s lèse-majesté laws, which carry up to 15-year sentences for criticizing the royal family.

It accused the party of using the monarchy to gain popular support during the 2023 elections and attempting “to denigrate the monarchy”.

The court also imposed a 10-year political ban on the party’s executives, including its former leader Pita Limjaroenrat.

The verdict comes more than a year after the MFP emerged as the grouping with the most seats in parliament following the polls. The party’s victory underscored the dissatisfaction of many Thais – especially the younger generation – with royalist conservatives that continue to dominate Thailand’s politics and are backed by the military.

However, the party was prevented from forming a government amid opposition from the army-appointed Senate over reforming lèse-majesté legislation. The new coalition government is led by the pro-business Pheu Thai Party.

The dissolution follows in the footsteps of the party’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, which was dissolved in 2020 after gaining significant success with a platform advocating for major reforms in the 2019 general elections.

The 142 MFP lawmakers will have 60 days to create a new party or lose their status, the Bangkok Post noted. The party plans to regroup under a new name and leadership, with an announcement expected Friday.

Analysts called Wednesday’s decision a setback for democratic reform in Thailand that sent a chilling message to other political parties and movements advocating for change.

They added that the ruling is connected to broader economic concerns, noting that political instability and the suppression of reformist parties have contributed to economic stagnation in Thailand.

Meanwhile, observers suggested that the governing Pheu Thai could benefit from MFP’s dissolution to become the biggest political force in parliament.

Brace, Brace

UNITED KINGDOM

Police are preparing for fresh anti-Muslim and anti-migrant demonstrations across the United Kingdom following days of violence and riots across the country in the wake of a knife attack last week that was incorrectly attributed to an illegal migrant, Reuters reported Wednesday.

The government has mobilized a “standing army” of 6,000 specialist police officers to respond to potential violence and protect targeted areas. Authorities have expressed concern about online messages showing that immigration centers and law firms assisting migrants are to be targeted.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer warned that rioters would face the “full force of the law,” while anti-racism and anti-fascist groups have organized counter-demonstrations to oppose the far-right actions.

The unrest began early last week after a 17-year-old attacked a dance class in Southport, northwest England, killing three girls and wounding others. Misinformation online labeled the attack as a refugee or Islamist migrant, but authorities later said the alleged perpetrator was born in the UK and has Rwandan heritage.

Even so, far-right and anti-immigrant groups launched a series of demonstrations in various cities, attacking hotels housing asylum seekers and mosques, as well as clashing with police.

The National Police Chiefs’ Council reported this week that more than 120 people have been charged and 428 arrested in connection with the riots. Some involved have already been sentenced to prison terms ranging from 20 months to three years.

The riots are considered the worst outbreak of violence in the UK in more than a decade, and have left many of the Muslim and minority ethnic communities feeling fearful and targeted.

They have also posed a major challenge for Starmer, just a month after his Labour Party won the parliamentary elections in a landslide, CNN wrote.

Analysts told the broadcaster that the violence also reflects deeper social tensions and the growing influence of far-right ideologies in the UK. The July 4 election results showed increasing support for right-wing parties with anti-immigration platforms, such as Reform UK, which came third in the elections in terms of votes cast.

Meanwhile, social media platforms have also come under scrutiny for allowing the spread of misinformation, prompting officials and politicians to demand tech companies take more responsibility in moderating content.

Billionaire Elon Musk, owner of X (formerly Twitter), added to the controversy after saying that “civil war is inevitable.” His statement drew condemnation from UK leaders who emphasized the need for responsible use of social media platforms, CNBC added.

Back To Work

AUSTRALIA

Australia’s New South Wales (NSW) ordered all its public employees back to the office this week, a decision that has divided opinion in the country’s most populous state over limiting the remote work practices that became prevalent during the Covid-19 pandemic, the Associated Press reported Wednesday.

NSW Premier Chris Minns said in a notice this week that jobs could become flexible by means other than remote work, such as part-time positions and role sharing. He emphasized the importance of employees’ physical presence for “building and replenishing public institutions.”

He added that workplace culture and mentorship opportunities would improve with more in-person interactions.

The directive to return to the office puts the state’s government – Australia’s largest employer – into a list of a growing number of institutions and companies that are attempting to reverse pandemic-era remote working practices.

Business and real estate groups in Sydney, the state’s largest city, welcomed the move because of concerns over falling office occupancy rates since 2020.

But the Public Service Association, the union representing public servants, opposed the initiative and threatened to challenge it. The union cited a lack of evidence for the change and expressed concern that the government might struggle to fill positions, with some critical agencies, such as child protection, facing vacancy rates as high as 20 percent.

Some analysts have also questioned whether the change might have been influenced by lobbying from the Rupert Murdoch-owned Daily Telegraph in Sydney, which advocated for an end to remote work due to potential economic benefits for local businesses.

Others noted that the new policy contrasts with other Australian states that have embraced remote working.

Chris F. Wright of the University of Sydney said the move undermines the federal government’s efforts to promote remote work to enhance workforce participation, reduce emissions and ease traffic congestion.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese supports remote work and plans to introduce a “right to disconnect” law, allowing employees to refuse work communications outside agreed hours.

DISCOVERIES

The Wild Side

Scientists recently discovered a relationship between rabbit genetics and “feralization” after researching how reintroducing the critters into the wild can have a devastating impact on the environment.

Feralization is known as the evolutionary process in which descendants of domestic animals that live in the wild lose the traits that helped them survive human environments and take on the characteristics suited for feral living.

In the case of rabbits, humans have bred them to become docile and have attractive coat colors, such as all-white or all-black. But despite becoming very trusting of humans, those fluffy bunnies carry a wild side.

Researchers at Texas A&M School of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences sequenced the DNA of nearly 300 rabbits in six populations in South America, Europe and Australia – all regions where the animals were introduced in the last 200 years.

Their findings showed that all the bunnies had a mix of wild and domesticated DNA.

“This was not what we had expected to find,” said co-author Leif Andersson. “We expected that feral rabbits were domestic rabbits that have somehow relearned how to live in the wild. But our findings show us that these rabbits already had a portion of wild DNA helping them survive in nature.”

Andersson and his colleagues explained that natural selection quickly results in the animals shedding their domesticated traits – such as tameness and coat colors – to adapt to the dangerous conditions in the wild.

This might explain Australia’s rabbit population problem for nearly two centuries.

“In 1859, an Englishman named Thomas Austin released 24 European rabbits onto his estate as game animals, but the population of rabbits exploded, causing an infestation that continues to cause millions of dollars’ worth of crop damage each year,” noted Andersson.

Current estimates indicate there are at least 150 million feral rabbits in Australia, leading to significant ecological and economic challenges, according to the Washington Post.

The authors suggested that the study highlight the consequences of releasing domestic animals into the wild.

They added that the findings can guide governments to make informed policies and conservation strategies to mitigate the impact of feral animals on ecosystems.

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